What goes in to a hurricane forecast?

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WVLT) - Allen asked, “How is the forecast path of a hurricane determined?”

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues graphical track forecasts extending out for five days.

The forecast time is indicated by a line, which is solid for the first three days and then broken for days four and five. This line isn’t an exact forecast path, but the median of many computer models’, satellite data, and trends. This line can change and shift.

The cone around that line represents the probable track of the storm plus the potential forecast error or variation. Based on previous forecast errors, the entire track of the tropical storm can be expected to stay within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. The cone becomes wider for the four and 5 day forecasts, as the forecast uncertainty increases.